Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 1.584220 2.074086 2.728097 3.685431 5.086390e+00 7.120254 10.411415
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 1.033883 1.528876 2.302390 3.662996 6.145348e+00 10.824295 21.315074
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 0.792261 1.304724 2.229302 4.173971 8.645464e+00 20.031426 59.190965
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 0.615539 1.112042 2.129605 4.662471 1.203270e+01 38.406998 199.353056
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 0.496158 0.975231 2.081714 5.337528 1.754506e+01 83.674261 1065.864100
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 0.402910 0.852758 2.010009 6.004487 2.549213e+01 199.490891 12661.994580
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 0.310935 0.694198 1.761937 5.933213 3.131898e+01 402.269528 472405.773039
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 0.239158 0.556572 1.498409 5.572080 3.568793e+01 766.906692 NaN
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 0.198352 0.484083 1.396600 5.861396 4.838872e+01 2365.339569 NaN
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 0.174581 0.449433 1.404419 6.822244 7.890903e+01 17311.502881 NaN
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 0.157821 0.428841 1.456424 8.307170 1.456901e+02 950897.196227 NaN
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 0.137654 0.389237 1.407894 9.122247 2.321251e+02 NaN NaN
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.114307 0.332374 1.257639 8.956889 3.091717e+02 NaN NaN
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 0.094369 0.280188 1.097014 8.410138 3.755406e+02 NaN NaN
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 0.083798 0.257890 1.071837 9.386929 7.038323e+02 NaN NaN
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 0.074408 0.236390 1.036964 10.294422 1.359536e+03 NaN NaN
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.067220 0.220723 1.025168 11.686916 3.243161e+03 NaN NaN
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 0.060722 0.205342 1.004551 13.055167 8.604418e+03 NaN NaN
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 0.052742 0.180825 0.906622 12.560082 1.367235e+04 NaN NaN
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 0.045406 0.156828 0.796820 11.433009 1.687421e+04 NaN NaN
2025-04-20 00:00:00+00:00 0.040959 0.144171 0.758084 11.929731 4.463283e+04 NaN NaN
2025-04-27 00:00:00+00:00 0.038388 0.139045 0.770687 14.049004 4.341230e+05 NaN NaN
2025-05-04 00:00:00+00:00 0.036572 0.136769 0.804934 17.490240 2.208042e+08 NaN NaN